Canada: Barley production estimate finalized by StatsCan at nearly 10 mln tonnes

For 2022-23, the Canadian barley production estimate was finalized by Statistics Canada (STC) in its December production report at nearly 10 million tonnes, 6% or 559 thousand tonnes above the September model-based forecast, largely reflecting an 11% (551 thousand tonnes) increase in Alberta barley production.

National yield potential and harvested area were also raised from September estimates. For now, the final production estimate is 44% and 13%, respectively, above last year's record low and the previous five-year average. The recovery in 2022 production mainly benefited from near-normal yield performance on the Canadian Prairies, which rebounded from last year's near record lows. Production is distributed as follows: 54% in Alberta, 36% in Saskatchewan, 7% in Manitoba, and 3% in all other provinces.

In the largest barley-producing province of Alberta, the 2022 barley output was pegged at 5.38 mln tonnes, up from 4.83 mln in September and the highest since 2013 due to improved yield and a larger harvested area. The provincial yield level was pegged at 4.08 t/ha, up 60% and 14%, respectively, from last year's near-record low and the previous five-year average, and close to the record high achieved in 2016. Barley output in Saskatchewan and Manitoba was lowered by 1% in each province from September, largely reflecting deteriorated yield, despite larger harvested area.

Due to the significant increase in production more than offsetting the historically low carry-in stocks and smaller imports, supply is expected to increase by 34% year on year to nearly 10.6 mln tonnes, but still be 6% below the pre-2021 five-year average. Domestic use and exports are expected to expand from 2021-22, given larger supplies. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.90 mln tonnes, rising sharply from last year’s record low.

According to STC’s monthly international trade data, Canadian barley exports in August-October 2022, the first three months of the 2022-23 crop year, were pegged at 816 thousand tonnes, down from 989 thousand tonnes in August-October 2021 but up from 592 thousand for the previous five-year average in the same period. The monthly export rate during August-October 2022 has increased sharply. Of the total export volume, about 88% was shipped to China and 10% to the US.

Barley malt exports in August-October 2022 neared 122 thousand tonnes, down from about 140 thousand tonnes in August-October 2021 and the previous five-year average. Compared to barley grain exports, exporting pace of malt has been relatively stable. Of the total exports, about 52% were shipped to the US, 27% to Japan and 11% to Mexico.

For the crop year to-date, feed barley prices in Alberta averaged C$360/t, C$15/t under the level a year ago. In Saskatchewan, feed barley prices averaged nearly C$315/t, $35/t below last year’s level. In Manitoba, feed barley prices averaged around C$320/t, C$35/t lower than a year ago. Malting barley prices in the three provinces declined by about C$70/t from a year ago. As a result, the price premium for malting barley relative to feed barley declined from last year’s high in all three provinces. For the entire crop year, the Lethbridge feed barley average price is predicted at C$400/t, down nearly C$30/t from last year’s record high due to expectations for a recovery in domestic feed grain supply. However, it will remain historically high, largely underpinned by strong corn prices and robust demand.

Worldwide, feed barley prices in the US/Montana have risen in recent weeks despite declining CBOT corn futures prices, with the crop year to-date average lower than that of a year ago. Feed barley export quotations from the Black Sea, Europe/France, and Australia/Adelaide have fallen in recent weeks, with the crop year to-date averages higher than a year ago. Australia/Adelaide malt barley prices have strengthened in recent weeks.

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